Many people I encounter want numbers to show what impact their intervention or program or policy is having in the world. The most important thing you can ever do is to have an accurate perception of what are the expected outcomes of your actions.
To see and understand things as they really are. What is that in practice? The first analogy is a valley. You can create a valley in a relatively short period of time with intensive sustained application of earth moving equipment and resources. You can also create a valley by the force of water flow over time, over a much longer period. Each drop of water, by itself, cannot create the valley, but the combined and sustained force of water is one of the most powerful energies on the planet.
Many programs and policies are designed to tackle massive problems, so even with what may be on the face a lot of resources, it is much more like adding drops of water to the stream than going out with dynamite and bulldozers. You cannot expect to measure the impact of your individual effort by short term changes in population measures. Creating a famine will show short term measurable changes in population weight. Nutritional labeling won't.
The second analogy continues with water. If we add our drops of water into a stream, we can have confidence that we are ultimately helping to create a valley, even though our contribution might be small. Let us take those same drops of water and sprinkle them on the desert. Our water drops, in isolation, will not be enough to substantially alter the biota of the desert. Understanding the context in which we are placing our actions is critically important to assessing their likely impact.
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